Q3 Quarterly Investment Outlook - October 2024  

Graham Wainer, Stonehage Fleming,  October 17, 2024

- Summary -

Despite a generally favourable environment, the outlook for the global economy is uncertain. Over the last quarter, the consensus mood has fluctuated between confidence in an economic ‘Goldilocks’ and fears of imminent recession. Sentiment is likely to continue to waver.

In this quarterly letter, we assess several possible economic scenarios for the US over the coming 12 months, outlining the most convincing evidence for a continued moderate rate of expansion.

We take a look at the Chinese economy and ask whether Beijing’s recent stimulus package may ignite consumer and private business confidence and boost investor sentiment in the near term.

Elsewhere, we explain the important role of catastrophe bonds as part of the alternatives component in our portfolios. And, with the initial frenzied excitement around Artificial Intelligence having cooled, we explore the evolution this year of AI as an investment theme. What have investors learned about which businesses stand to benefit from this game-changing technology?

The global cycle has matured, and a range of geopolitical and economic risks make for a fragile backdrop to portfolio allocation. In short, we remain constructive on the continued opportunities for risk adjusted returns over the coming 12 months and beyond, but are all too aware of the potential for a period of heightened market volatility.

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